For well over a year now, polling data has down a precipitous decline in support for President Joe Biden and his failing administration among young people, sending worrying signs to Democrats that the youth vote may be scrambling for the exits.
While Biden won the youth vote in 2020 by 24 percentage points – 60 percent to 36 percent – his support promptly declined as Covid lockdowns, a sputtering economy, skyhigh inflation, rampant crime, and the unpopular wars in Ukraine and Israel took their toll.
Young conservatives took issue with Biden’s failure on the border, and young leftists threatened to desert him for his modest support of Israel in the Democratic Primaries.
For much of this past year, Biden has been polling around 25 to 30 points below his 2020 numbers with an extremely disgruntled Gen Z and younger Millennial base.
Several polls this spring showed former President Donald Trump on the verge of outright winning voters under 30. Much of Biden’s loss of support has been concentrated among young men, particularly those of color and those without college degrees, with polls showing significant concerns about the economy and job prospects are key contributors.
A Morning Consult poll from January found that Gen Z voters trusted Trump over Biden to handle the immigration crisis by seven points, crime by ten points, and the economy by nearly 20 points.
Gen Z voters also said the economy was the most important issue to them when choosing who to vote for in November. Later, an Economist/YouGov poll showed young people disapproved of Biden’s handling of immigration by a 33-point margin, with young men saying by a 27 point margin that immigration has made the U.S. economy worse.
Within weeks of Biden’s sputtering debate performance in late June, and Trump’s survival of a cowardly assassination attempt, young people appeared to be rallying toward the former president’s side.
YouGov data from the week’s following the assassination attempt showed Trump’s favorability rating had risen a full ten percentage points among voters under 30 in the span of two weeks. His favorable rating went from 30 percent the first week of July to 40 percent in mid-July.
However, the rapid retirement of Biden and the emergence of an institutionally blessed Kamala Harris for president with her “Brat” campaign targeted at appealing to young women upended the chess board.
Unsurprisingly, Harris’s campaign appeals more to young women than young men. Emerging polling data shows the gender gap between Trump and Harris has widened to a full 51 percentage points among young people – far greater than the already increasing gender gap among older voters.
Brand new polling from the New York Times paints a startingly distinct chasm between the political alliances of young men and women since Harris became the Democratic nominee.
According to Times polling from June, young men under 30 planned to support Former President Trump over Biden by eleven percentage points, while young women planned to support Biden by 28 points, constituting a broad 39-point gender gap.
This gap alone is significant, because the gap among young men and women is much larger than the overall gender gap.
However, the gender gap widened to a massive 51-percentage point divide once Biden was replaced with Harris. The Times poll from August reveals that young men plan to support Trump by 13 percentage points, while women plan to support Harris by 38-points, constituting a 51-point gender gap for under thirties.
In other words, Harris rallied young women toward her by ten percentage points since launching her campaign. Young men remained relatively stable in their preference for Trump over Biden or Harris, slightly increasing their support for Trump once Harris was added. Any way you slice it, the data suggests that young people as a block are increasingly divided compared to generations a few decades older.
According to data from Gallup, young men are identifying as Democrat at a significantly lower rate than they did eight years ago leading up to Trump’s 2016 victory. Gallup’s survey on American Life shows that in 2016 a full 51 percent of men under age 30 identified or leaned Democrat, but that number is down to just 39 percent.
The reasons for this widening gender divide are myriad and complex. Data shows young men are struggling to attain degrees at the same rates as young women, and blue-collar trade industries which young men were once able to earn a stable career with are disappearing due to globalization. Crushing inflation has made owning a home and starting a family difficult for many.
According to the Times data, younger white men without college degrees favor Trump at higher rates than those with degrees. However, it isn’t just young white men rallying behind Trump’s populist economic message. Young men of color are more likely to be among those who have switched their votes from Biden to Trump between 2020 and 2024.
Interviews with young men planning to support Trump cited primarily economic reasons according to the Times. Young men also revealed feeling unvalued and noted they valued strength in a presidential leader, qualities Trump is able to speak to directly.
Gone are the days when popular punk rock bands or artists like Eminem railed against what they viewed as oppressive and claustrophobic white picket fence normalcy. Many Gen Z men grew up in classrooms where they were chastised for their gender or race alone and suffered overt racism at application time if they chose to go to college.
Entire industries which could have offered an alternative to the academic route have disappeared, and cheap foreign labor is threatening to take what little jobs are left. The white picket fence dream was taken away before Gen Z got a chance to weigh in.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
