Young voters were one of the core coalitions that installed President Biden in the White House, supporting him by a twenty-four-point margin in 2020. Peering deeper into the data, young voters have been slowly drifting away from Democrats in each election since 2012. That drift has rapidly accelerated in the past three years as economic issues have become paramount for young adults. New polling suggests Biden is on track to lose double-digits with voters under thirty compared to the 2020 election, and economic issues are at the center of the problem.
Stagnant wages, crippling inflation, a housing affordability crisis, the importation of cheap foreign labor and an absurd regulatory environment that stifles small business growth are issues all Americans face, but young people are hit particularly hard in Biden’s economy.
Economic issues are at the heart of the growing social problem of young people being unable to support themselves and remaining dependents long into their adult years. A September Harris poll found approximately 45% of young people 18 to 29 are living at home with parents, the largest number since the 1940’s. Over 60% say they were forced to move back in with relatives due to the economy in just the past few years and were living outside the home before 2020.
For many young people, returning to living with parents is not a first choice — 40% of young people living with parents are forced to do so to save money. Thirty percent say they are living at home because they can’t afford their own homes, and others cite student debt, job loss and medical costs as burdens preventing them from moving out.
Data from credit-giant Experian found that a plurality of young people today say current economic conditions are ruining their chances of financial independence, and Pew Besearch Center recently found that Gen Z voters believe their economic state is worse than anyone else’s.
Gen Z is struggling to move into the work force, rent or buy homes, and find their independence in an economic hailstorm much like Millennials were at the height of the Wall Street collapse of 2008.
History tells us that young people tend to revolt against those in power when the country is facing a crisis, and the backlash in 2024 could be considerate. Millennials channeled their fury at Wall Street and big banks into a historic number of votes for Obama’s “newcomer” campaign, and Gen Z will have to choose between loyalty to a failing globalist ideology or giving Trump a chance to reverse the damage.
Polls suggest young people are poised to turn on Democrats in 2024 in one of the largest political upsets in decades. New swing state polling from the New York Times shows Biden winning voters under thirty by just one point — 41% to 40% — after winning them by 24 percentage points in 2020.
This represents a huge 23 percentage-point swing among Gen Z and younger Millennials that could cost Democrats the presidency and threaten their chances in the legislative branch.
Worse, a full 75% of young people say they are not committed to voting for Biden. Just one quarter of young people are committed to voting for Biden, an unconvincing number compared to the share of their vote he secured in 2020.
According to the Times poll, voters under thirty say the economy is their number one issue in the upcoming election at a higher rate than any other age group. Sixty-two percent of voters 18-29 say the economy is their primary issue compared to 59% of voters 30-44, 58% of voters 45-64, and 53% of voters over 64.
Less than a tenth of voters under thirty believe the economy is in good condition, while older voters say it is in good condition by low double-digits. The poll found only 7% of voters under 30 say the economy is in good condition, while nearly twice as many Millennials (12%), three times as many Gen X voters (20%) and over four times as many Boomers (31%) say the economy is good. Said another way, 93% of voters under 30 say the economy is in poor or fair condition.
Democrats have long banked on young voters lining up to support a failing globalist agenda, but that support is rapidly eroding. Besides young people feeling particularly despondent about their chances of supporting themselves in Biden’s economy, previous polls have found less than half of young people are pleased with Biden’s handling of other issues including the border crisis and the wars in Ukraine and Israel. While disgruntled young voters may choose to sit out the election or favor a third-party candidate, young people are deeply unhappy with the Biden agenda and are poised to reverse course.
Bill Willson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
