As I start to write this on “Liberation Day”, the range of messy actions by the Trump/Musk regime swirled through my mind. The amount of American lives that are being upended is yet to be counted so we can only surmise the possible total. But it is hard to deny that a huge amount of people are being affected.
Yet, the worse is likely to come. For example, if you are a Vet trying to get services from the VA before any DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) induced reduction in force (RIF), you know it is already way too often an arduous process. If you have tried to connect with Social Security, you had to be prepared to practically camp out to get through to someone - before a RIF. The list goes on with drastic actions being sloppily done.
Now Trump’s almost fetish love for tariffs come into play upending supply chains and economies worldwide plus turning allies into adversaries. This includes breaking trade agreements such as Trump’s USMCA - a deal with our Canadian and Mexican neighbors he initiated and signed.
Certainly, it is possible some foreign manufacturers will want to establish plants in the US to reduce tariff impacts. However, when we factor in how long it takes to set up a manufacturing plant, the effect will not be quick in terms of creating new jobs for Americans.
Meanwhile, living costs go up with minimal prospect they will be lower.
That is because one of the effects we can count on was demonstrated in the tariffs on foreign made washers and dryers during Trump’s first term. The prices initially fluctuated and then increased such that when the tariffs expired in 2023, prices were up 34% - which is more than the inflation effect during that period.
The explanation is standard capitalism. If you are a US firm you raise your prices when the competition is strapped with having to charge more.
We can well see that likelihood with US auto manufacturers when their competitor’s prices go up. However, it is even questionable that the US auto manufacturers will have a competitive edge in prices since so many parts and metals they use are foreign sourced.
If you accepted that Trump’s claim to immediately bring down prices was his typical BS, you were likely thinking that he was not going to make the cost of living worse.
Consider, for example, that 30% of the lumber used to build houses in the US comes from Canada which is 70% of what the US housing market needs to import (other sources are Brazil, Sweden, and Germany - now also hit with tariffs), All of those countries’ lumber will cost more. The effect on housing costs will be to push homes further out of reach for American homebuyers.
Ok, you say- it takes time for Trump’s strategy to get to a positive footing. “Trust in Trump” is the MAGA adherents’ slogan. Trump has even warned - despite his campaign promises- that the road can be rough.
But I thought we were really suffering under the Biden economy and, therefore, going downhill with the promise of brighter days ahead certainly does not sound too good. Particularly, a promise from a born into wealth rich guy with a background of multiple failed businesses.
It will certainly be a problem to wait for the better future for the 8 million student loan borrowers (the highest number ever) in arrears or unable to repay their loans - just to name one example of many living on the margins.
Trump’s cold turkey approach to carelessly “improving/shrinking” our Federal government along with higher tariffs portends not just short term negative effects domestically but is changing our relationship in the world negatively over the long term.
The recent addition of tariffs into the mix of the Trump tear down of the country means he can be considered not just “tariffic” but perhaps, better said, “terroriffic.”
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