Last month headlines abounded that finally President Joe Biden was gaining an edge in polls against former President Trump, but that edge is fading rapidly, even as Trump’s legal battle continues.
A new CNN poll shows Trump recovering his edge against Biden despite fending off a lawsuit over allegedly falsifying business records. The poll shows Americans increasingly look back on Trump’s governing with fondness, with over half the public – 55 percent – saying Trump’s presidency was a success. A dismal 39 percent of Americans say Biden’s first term has been a success, while 61 percent say his presidency has been a failure.
Biden, who enjoyed a brief blip of support in the polls in April, has only lost ground in the latest polls conducted since the trial against Trump kicked off in Manhattan. The CNN poll shows Trump with a six-point lead, earning 49 percent of the vote to Biden’s 43 percent.
What is more, swing voters show worrying signs of departing from Biden in November, with just 37 percent of independents saying Biden’s presidency has been a success, compared to 51 percent who say Trump’s was.
Data continues to show independents gravitating toward Trump after supporting Biden by thirteen points in 2020. As we pointed out last week, the trial against Trump has rallied partisans, but independent and swing voters remain unbothered. We noted that independent voters are some of the least likely to say a guilty verdict for Trump would impact their vote in November, with 71 percent of independents saying a conviction would not impact their vote.
The CNN poll also validates that younger voters are consistently less enthusiastic about Biden, with Trump leading Biden 51 percent to 40 percent among voters under thirty-five. This latest finding is one of the largest leads for Trump among young voters in recent polls but does support the trend that younger voters are reluctant to embrace Biden. Younger voters are particularly critical of Biden’s handling of the Israel- Hamas war according to the poll, with a full 81 percent of voters under 35 signaling their disapproval with Biden’s handling of the conflict.
This is far from the only poll to show Biden losing ground against Trump in recent weeks. The latest poll from the New York Times shows only a quarter of Americans believe the Biden years have been “mostly good” for the country while nearly twice as many (46%) say the past four years have been “mostly bad”.
According to the Times poll, voters look back fondly on how Trump governed, with voters saying by a two to one margin – 64 percent to 33 percent – they approve of the way Trump handled the economy. A plurality of Americans also approves of Trump’s handling of immigration, maintaining law and order, and foreign conflict.
And this week, Emerson released a new battleground state poll that found a majority of voters and a plurality of independents say a conviction for Trump wouldn’t impact their vote either way. The same poll found that a greater share of independent voters would be more likely – not less likely – to support Trump in at least three of the states – Arizona, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Despite facing a highly publicized legal witch hunt, Trump is gaining against Biden compared to last month, particularly among independent voters and young people. Trump’s presidency and the way he handled a multitude of domestic and international issues are being reflected on fondly by voters, and the brief blip in support for Biden that made headlines last month has evaporated.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
