After President Joe Biden’s string of political liabilities – most visibly captured at the last presidential debate – the Democratic elite are scrambling to determine whether to lock in behind Biden and force the American people to accept it, or shuttle him aside.
As the New York Times recently reported, Biden strategists are quietly testing an alternative in the form of placing Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, to directly oppose Trump. If Biden would be removed from the ticket altogether remains unclear.
There appears to be some renewed appetite for replacing Biden with Harris, but is she the best choice? A recent poll from the firm Bendixen & Amandi, Inc. has been covered by the media this week because of its finding that Harris could beat Trump by a single percentage point. The poll found Harris beating Trump 42 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided and a mere 3 percent going third-party.
How does that poll stack up to other independent opinion polls? Polling placing Harris directly against Trump is sparce, but the few recent national polls available show Harris and Biden losing at nearly the same level to Trump.
A March Fox News poll from this spring shows Trump beating Harris by six points and Biden by five, while a June poll from Data for Progress found Trump beating both Harris and Biden by three points.
What is more, Harris’ favorability ratings have been consistently bleak among key coalitions of swing voters. While favorability is not a direct correlation to electability, it is worth noting how bad Harris’ approval rating remains.
The latest YouGov survey from early July has Harris eighteen points in the negative nationwide, with 55 percent of Americans giving her a negative approval rating to 37 percent who give her a positive one. Among those who view Harris unfavorably, the wide majority (44 percent) view her very unfavorably, indicating there is minimal room for persuasion among those who view her negatively.
Among whites, Harris is 28 points in the negative, 61percent to 33 percent, and among Hispanics she is 14 points in the negative, 50 percent to 36 percent.
Among Gen X voters, Harris is 20 points in the negative, 58 percent to 38 percent, and among voters over 65 she is 25 points in the negative, 61 percent to 36 percent. Harris also does poorly with Millennials and is underwater by 16 points.
Middle income voters dislike Harris more than lowerand upper-income voters do, giving her an approval rating that is 24 points in the negative, 60 percent to 36 percent. Harris polls particularly badly among independents and is a full 35 points in the negative with this group, 60 percent to 25 percent.
A February Morning Consult poll also found that by a fourteen point margin, Americans said if Biden were unable to fulfill the duties of the presidency, they would not trust Harris to do so. While it is a slim margin, what stands out is the vast share of the country who places almost no trust in Harris, compared to those who place a great deal of trust in her.
A full 42% of the country says they don’t trust Harris “much at all” to handle the duties of the presidency, compared to just 26% who trust Harris “a lot”.
The poll also found that large coalitions of would-be Democrat voters are very weary of Harris.
For instance, college-educated voters who generally skew Democrat distrust Harris’ ability to handle the White House strongly. A full 40% of college-educated Americans say they do not trust Harris “much at all” while just 24% trust her “a lot”. Upper income voters, again a group which skews Democrat, trust Harris “not much at all” by seven points, 39% to 32%.
Some may argue these views are in flux, considering Biden’s alarming performance at the first and only presidential debate of the election season which revealed the reality conservatives have known for years.
A portion of Democrat- leaning voters who saw just how inept Biden appeared may be outright scared into reconsidering Harris, simply because supporting Biden is unthinkable.
However, the argument that Harris is at the core “more electable” is not a strong one. Perhaps with the right Vice President she could raise her odds. But this still leaves the issue of encouraging – or forcing – Biden to stop aside, something he appears unwilling to do.
Harris is far from a great solution in terms of electability, at least as views stand now.
Manzanita Miller is the senior political analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.
